By Robert T. McGee
Absolutely the and relative functionality of assorted asset periods is systematically on the topic of macroeconomic developments. during this new ebook, Robert McGee offers an intensive advisor to every level of the enterprise cycle and analyzes the funding implications utilizing real-world examples linking fiscal dynamics to funding effects.
Read or Download Applied Financial Macroeconomics and Investment Strategy: A Practitioner’s Guide to Tactical Asset Allocation PDF
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Additional info for Applied Financial Macroeconomics and Investment Strategy: A Practitioner’s Guide to Tactical Asset Allocation
Basically, a recession involves a suitably prolonged decline in production, jobs, incomes, and spending. The Cycle Dating Committee has a bit of discretion in deciding the necessary duration and degree of decline, but generally speaking its decision will usually, but not always, coincide with the onset of at least two down quarters in real GDP, hence the attraction of that simpler definition. The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) is much maligned and often ignored by economists and strategists.
In fact, accelerating technological progress makes this alternative view even more likely. In essence, technology, artificial intelligence, and robotics are substituting for labor supply growth, keeping potential GDP growth healthier than basic demographics alone would suggest. In any case, growth in employment can be viewed as the normal course in a capitalist economy, in which the labor force is absorbed until sufficient imbalances accumulate and eventually interrupt the process, causing a recession to correct excesses.
In recent years, however, pressures on public finances have challenged this historic advantage and even caused fiscal policy more generally to become a destabilizing, procyclical force. As a mix of cyclical and less cyclical jobs, overall employment is one of the best trackers of whether GDP is growing or not. That’s why it is one of the four components in the index of coincident indicators. These four components are available on a monthly basis, making it possible to date recessions in the month they start and end.